The World After the Possible Collapse of the INF Treaty
DOC in Berlin will be joined by Dr. Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council as he gives a timely lecture on the potential consequences of the mutual suspension of the INF treaty.
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, once one of the pillars of nuclear arms control, was consigned to history on 1 February Protected content .
When it was signed Protected content , the INF Treaty paved the way to an end of military confrontation in Europe. But having announced his intention to suspend the treaty last year, President Trump has now officially ordered the United States’ withdrawal, prompting Russia to terminate participation in response.
Given the unfavourable state of relations between Moscow and Washington, the chances of saving the INF Treaty are very limited. Amidst the international system’s rapidly shifting constellation of forces, both the US and Russia want to free themselves from the limitations of binding nuclear arms treaties, not least due to the growing missile capabilities of Asian states, including China.
The biggest victim of such power plays could be European security. With a new arms race a potential consequence of the INF Treaty’s demise, Europe is entering a potentially long and dangerous period of uncertainty.
The spectre of nuclear war haunts the European public again, and the threat of the arms control regime’s total collapse could spark mass protest movements. It is therefore high time for Germany and Europe to enter the nuclear-arms debate and play an active role in shaping a future of collective security.
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