Anyone living in the Fenerbahçe neighborhood in Kadiköy and in Üsküdar, as well as in Avcilar, Ambarli and the Princes Islands (shoot, there goes my dream summer house!)? Don't say you haven't been warned:
Expert warns of earthquake risk in Turkey's Marmara region
The Northern Anatolia fault line under the Marmara Sea is likely to cause a major earthquake that could do severe damage to Istanbul, according to a professor of geology.
In light of the latest research, the fault is expected to create an earthquake of a magnitude between 7.0 and 7.6 on the Richter scale, said Professor Celal Şengör from Istanbul Technical University’s Geology Department.
“If the fault line starts breaking from the west, the Fenerbahçe neighborhood in the Kadiköy district and the Üsküdar district are going to see the greatest damage in an earthquake,” Şengör said. “If the fault line breaks behind the Princes’ Islands, the Avcılar district and Ambarlı port would be completely destroyed.”
The professor said the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality needs to take precautions to address all potential scenarios instead of choosing just one of these risk zones and fortifying the buildings there.
An earthquake on the Northern Anatolia fault line could also trigger a second earthquake on another fault line inside the Marmara Sea’s Çınarcık trench, Şengör said, adding that a Çınarcık quake could create 15-meter-high waves. “Such waves hit the Marmara shores 17,000 years ago. It could happen again,” he said.
“The length of a fault line that is going to break is the most important piece of information needed in determining the magnitude of a potential earthquake,” the professor said. “The locations of the fault lines under the Marmara Sea have already been discovered and research is being conducted to find out the last time there was an earthquake on these faults. If we can find out what portions of the fault lines broke in the Protected content Protected content , we can also determine what portions are left [unbroken] and may cause another earthquake.”
The research will also help show if there is any petroleum or natural gas under the Marmara Sea, Şengör said.
“The gas leaks from the sea floor can help us locate possible locations of fault lines that have not broken yet,” he said. “We may be able to warn residents of a possible earthquake ahead of time to facilitate necessary evacuation.”
From "Expert warns of earthquake risk in Turkey's Marmara region" - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review
Forget about the cost of living in a neighborhood or whether expats live near you , consider instead your safety from Big E. Check if it is comparatively safer than those identified by seismologists as the places with the highest probability of a disaster happening.
Here's another warning from Science Daily:
The Izmit-Earthquake of August Protected content in 18,000 death victims and was, with a magnitude of 7.4, the most recent quake of a series, which began in Protected content the east of Turkey and gradually ran along the plate border between the Anatolian and the Eurasian Plate from east to west. Therefore, the next quake in this series is expected to take place west of Izmit, i.e. south of Istanbul. The city has, thus, a threatening earthquake risk."
Is your neighborhood in a south area of Istanbul? If you're not sure, read on: