Global Economies & Geo-Political Scenario 5 Years

With the COVID-19 situation, the world has witnessed never before changes in terms of lifestyle and witnessing the resetting of economies for almost every country on the Globe. On one hand there are unproven theories of Bio-Terrorism unleashed by a Government Owned Lab in Wuhan, Peoples Republic of China and on the other the Healthcare Stress Test on Global Super-powers has taken its toll. The Pandemic has treated the Common Man or Heads of States/Administration, Old or Young, Rich or Poor all alike.

The question that all of us are bent on raising to our own selves is - What Next..? In terms of going back to the Old Normal, Changing face of Global Terrorism, Impact on Economies, Disposable Incomes dropping to alarming levels and most importantly where is the world headed in times to come.

Strictly from my Personal Viewpoint and Observing the turn of events over the last 7 months of Pandemic in particular and last 5 years in general, I decided to put my opinion on the subject matter in this article.

On-Set of Clod War 2.0 - The Sino-US Trade War has been a reality over the last 3 years failing to settle even with endless number of Trade Talks. US was the largest customer for Chinese manufactured good for over 15 years and all of sudden President Trump decided to bring the production back to home turf by bringing in never thought before trade barriers for Chinese goods & services. This definitely didn't leave a good taste for the Chinese Administration and there started the counter attack on US Products & Services entry into the Chinese territory. Don't forget that the Tech Biggies like Facebook, Google, Amazon etc. have completely been banned in the Chinese territory since over a decade already in the name of Censorship. Well, Censorship is only a front for the sake of promoting their own Homegrown platforms like Baidu as Google Alternative or RenRen/QQ as Facebook Alternative or Alibaba as Amazon Alternative. Censorship...? Oh ask anyone who's been to Mainland China as to what is Censored there and you'll hear a big - NOTHING except for anything against the Communist Party of China.

This Cold War unlike the first one, is going to be at a very different level all together. It will be all about gaining ECONOMIC SUPREMACY globally. The world once again is going to get divided into two blocks viz. THE US BLOCK Vs. THE CHINA BLOCK. Now, the extreme cultured countries like, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea etc. will openly side with the China Block and Most of the Western & Central European and South-Asian Countries will be with the US Block. There would be three more set of categories one that would be Independent (Scandinavian Countries), others which would be Independent US Block Leaning (India & some other South Asian countries) and third would be Independent China Block Leaning (Primarily countries with major Chinese investments over the last 2 decades).

The above dynamics would govern the Global Trade & Economics. In South-Asia, it seems, countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines & South Korea would become the parallel production hubs reducing the dependence on Chinese production capabilities. Africa would develop in terms of being the Raw-Material providing hub. India on the other hand would see the economy boom on left-overs as PM Modi alone can't bring about the changes in the age old ways of All Talk & No Action on Ground Reality. In the Indian context, it still seems the Rich will get Richer and the Poor will be appeased for Vote Bank politics by giving unending Farm Loan waivers and Freebies. The middle-class will take the burden of paying taxes and increasing unemployment levels.

The countries Globally will continue strengthening their Defense Capabilities the sector which will remain in growing business in times to come. K-Growth graph will be witnessed across economies wherein some sectors would witness constant growth and others will witness decline. The impact on any country is not going to be one-sided. The Economies globally would be impacted in one way or the other.

The need of the hour is to think smart and follow the forward thinking policy to cover these Geo-Political risk points as part of Business Growth & Diversification Strategy.

Disclaimer: The above are strictly the author's personal viewpoints on Global Scenarios in current affairs and are not intended to hurt any Individual, Company, Country or Group's political or personal emotions in any manner whatsoever. The Author has further not elaborated on the Financial Impact of the stated Global Developments on any particular business which will continue to be different depending on the particular business' situation & circumstances to be assessed individually.