Latin americas currencies firm and vigilant to the Fed
The currencies of Latin americas firm would operate next week favored by the arrival of dollars into the region, while analysts do not expect the U.S. Federal Reserve move the benchmark interest rate at its next ad.
Instead, it is expected that the central banks of Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru raise the cost of credit in the near future, which would continue to give strength to the currencies by the largest differential with rates in the United States.
The closest case is that of Peru, where the sun closed on Friday with an appreciation of 0.46 percent in Protected content units per dollar, above expectations of an increase in local interest rates on Thursday.
"In our view, inflation accelerated and their expectations, along with the robust economic activity, could induce the central bank to raise rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent at its meeting on August 7," said Bertrand Delgado , An analyst at the firm IDEAglobal.
In contrast, analysts expect the Fed on Tuesday kept interest rates at 2.0%, after figures showed a weaker economy than expected.
Delgado said the Peruvian sun could operate in a range of 2.78 / 2.83 units per dollar next week, while the weight you would in 500/510 units.
The Chilean currency on Friday closed at 505.00 / 505.50 and some analysts believe the central bank will also raise interest rates on 14 August to 7.5% from 7.25%, but to be vigilant inflation report on Tuesday.
"The inflation figures will have a significant impact on the survey of expectations of the central bank, which maintained high projections and forced a further increase in interest rates," said a report of the signing 4Cast.
Mexico and Brazil as well. Inflation figures are also expected in Mexico's second largest economy in the region, where the weight is extending its streak of assessment and on Friday touched its best level since October 24, Protected content , at 9. Protected content 9. Protected content per dollar.
Analysts expect an increase in the cost of credit, after the central bank rose by nearly one percentage point average in their expectations of inflation and reduced its projection for the country's economic growth.
"In our view, the central bank could raise its reference interest rate by 25 basis points to 8.25% (60% likely) at its next meeting on August 15," said Delgado, IDEAglobal.
"We are not surprised to note the exchange rate closer to a level of 9.90 pesos per dollar," said Ricardo Aguilar for his part, the local Invex Casa de Bolsa.
The Mexican peso could operate at ranges of 9.90 and 10.00 pesos per dollar, before expectations of higher rates differential between the U.S. and Mexico.
In Brazil, the real was strengthened around 0.06 percent on Friday, to Protected content per dollar, due to increased flows of foreign investment, looking to capitalize an expected rise in domestic interest rates.
Many expect an increase in local interest rates in Brazil, in the minutes after the last meeting of central bank last week, the directors of the entity called a "vigorous" monetary policy to control inflation.
"It is likely that the real is maintained below the 1.58 because the market expects a more aggressive tone of the central bank of Brazil," said the firm 4Cast.
In Uruguay, on Friday, the peso reached its highest value since July Protected content , to 19.1 units per dollar, while its value in interbank rose 0.3 percent to 19,136 units per dollar.